Abstract
This study analyzed the relationship between participation during the first week of an online course and subsequent academic performance. A quantitative, correlational, short-term longitudinal study was conducted with 68 university students using Moodle records of access, resource consultation, initial assignment submission, and forum participation. Early participation showed a moderate positive association with academic performance during weeks 2–6 (ρ = 0.46; p < 0.001) and an inverse relationship with late submissions (ρ = −0.38; p = 0.001). The findings suggest that initial participation records may serve as early indicators for identifying students who could benefit from timely academic support, although they should not be considered deterministic predictors of individual performance.
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